Display rules
The “current state of the data” for each indicator is determined mechanically by this site from past published values, using the fixed rules below. No human judgement or outlook is involved, and it is not a classification by the publisher (such as the Cabinet Office). The leading, coincident and lagging labels are shown separately, exactly as the publisher classifies them.
Phase
We call the 3-month moving average of the year-on-year change the “growth rate”. Four phases are defined by whether the latest growth rate is positive (zero or above) or negative, and whether it is above or below the growth rate three months earlier.
| Growth rate | Above 3 months earlier | Same or below 3 months earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Positive | Growth strengthening | Growth weakening |
| Negative | Decline easing | Decline deepening |
No phase is shown when the growth rate cannot be calculated (for example, when the published period is short).
For diffusion indexes (DIs, such as the Economy Watchers Survey, where 50 separates improvement from deterioration), the level itself is meaningful, so the 3-month moving average of the year-on-year difference in points is used instead of the growth rate.
Position within the last 5 years
This shows where the latest value sits among the values of the last 60 months. If the share of months at or below the latest value is 80% or more, it is “high”; if 20% or less, “low”; otherwise “middle”. It is not shown when fewer than 24 months of values are available.
Notes
- Seasonally adjusted series are used. Past states may change when the publisher revises the data (from preliminary to final figures, base-year revisions, and so on)
- The states shown summarise past published values and do not indicate future developments. They are not intended for investment decisions